Open bets: measure exposure, liability and correlated risk
Calculate the money at risk across open bets, exchange liabilities and related selections. Avoid counting the same bankroll twice.
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Small individual stakes can add up
Ten open bets at 2% each can commit 20% of the same reference bankroll. The individual stake size has not changed, but your total exposure has. Looking only at the next bet misses the money already at risk.
For a normal cash back bet, the maximum loss is the stake. For an exchange lay bet, it is the liability, which can be much larger than the quoted lay stake. Restricted bonus balances and potential winnings should not be added to available cash.
Exposure is a possible loss, not a prediction. Adding maximum losses gives a useful conservative total, although mutually exclusive outcomes and hedged positions need a more detailed scenario calculation.
Use liability for lay bets
For a single fully matched lay bet at decimal odds, before commission and without other positions in the market:
Lay liability = lay stake × (lay odds − 1).
A lay stake of 10 at odds of 6.00 has a liability of 50. If the selection wins, you lose 50; if it loses, your gross win is 10. Counting this position as only 10 at risk understates the possible loss fivefold.
For partially matched orders, record the matched portion as current exposure. Keep unmatched orders visible too: they may become matched later. An exchange's displayed available balance may account for offsets within a market, so reconcile it with the platform's own settlement and commission rules.
Build one list across all accounts
Suppose your reference bankroll is 500 and you have these open positions:
Scroll the table horizontally if needed.
| Position | Maximum loss |
|---|---|
| Cash back bet on match A | 10 |
| Cash back bet on match B | 15 |
| Lay bet: stake 10 at 6.00 | 50 |
| Total before any verified offsets | 75 |
The conservative exposure is 75 ÷ 500 = 15%. These are accounting examples, not recommended limits.
Record the operator, market, event, stake, odds, maximum loss, matching status and expected settlement date. Use one currency and one valuation time. A 100 transfer between two accounts belongs in your transfer log, not as a second 100 of bankroll.
Group bets that can lose together
Different selections are not necessarily independent. A team to win, its striker to score and an accumulator containing that team may all rely on a similar match scenario. Placing them with different bookmakers does not remove that connection.
Make an event-level view alongside the account-level view. Ask what happens if the team loses, the player is unavailable or a weather assumption is wrong. You do not need a precise correlation coefficient to see a concentration of risk.
Do not subtract a hedge just because two bet descriptions sound opposite. Check whether the positions cover the same event period, settlement rules and outcomes. Extra time, player participation and void rules can leave gaps.
Check exposure before increasing it
Before another bet, update settled results and review all still-open positions. A futures bet may tie up funds for months, while a suspended market may prevent an intended cash-out or hedge.
- Confirm the account's available cash and the matched status of open orders.
- Add the new maximum loss to the existing exposure.
- Check the event-level concentration as well as the total.
- Compare the result with the limits you decided before the session.
- Skip the additional bet if it would exceed those limits.
This process controls commitment. It does not establish that any selection has positive expected value, or that a loss within the limit will feel comfortable.
