Economics prediction markets: Fed, inflation & jobs

Economic prediction markets are contracts on scheduled data and policy events: central-bank interest-rate decisions, inflation prints (CPI), monthly jobs reports (non-farm payrolls), GDP, and broader questions like recession odds within a period. This is a core strength of Kalshi, whose regulated event contracts are built around official economic releases. Because these events are scheduled and resolve against published data, the markets are unusually clean to trade.

Unlike an open-ended price bet, an economic release has a known date and a known, official number. That makes the markets sharp: prices tighten as the release approaches, and they resolve unambiguously against the data. They're also a way to express a macro view — for example on whether a central bank will cut rates — with a defined risk, or to hedge exposure that's sensitive to inflation or rates.

Economic markets settle against the official data release from the relevant authority (for instance the statistics agency's CPI figure or the central bank's rate announcement), at the scheduled time. The key detail is the exact metric and threshold: 'CPI above 3.0%' resolves on the specific series and rounding the market names. Read the contract's definition so a revision or a different sub-index doesn't surprise you.

• Prices are most liquid and most informative in the hours before a scheduled release. • The number itself causes a sharp repricing — you can trade the run-up, or the reaction, rather than holding blindly through it. • Consensus forecasts are public, so the market largely prices the surprise versus expectations, not the raw number. • Watch the resolution definition and any data-revision rules.

Kalshi is the natural home for regulated, USD economic contracts; Polymarket carries some macro markets in a crypto-settled, decentralised format. Availability depends on your jurisdiction. As always: this is educational information, not financial advice. Macro outcomes are genuinely hard to predict, markets can lose money, and you should only trade what you can afford to lose.