Kalshi explained: the regulated US prediction market

Kalshi is a US-regulated prediction market. It operates as an exchange overseen by the CFTC (the US derivatives regulator), which makes it one of the few places US residents can legally trade on the outcome of events. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi uses regular US dollars (not crypto) and is fully custodial and regulated — you fund an account much like a brokerage. The trade-off for that safety and legality is a more curated, sometimes narrower set of markets.

Kalshi lists event contracts: a question with a Yes/No outcome. Each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, and — as with any prediction market — the price is the implied probability. A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't. Buy a Yes contract at 40¢; if the event occurs you receive $1 (a 60¢ profit), and if it doesn't you lose the 40¢. You can also sell your position before settlement to take a profit or cut a loss.

Kalshi offers contracts across categories such as economics (inflation, interest rates, jobs data), weather, politics and current events where permitted, and it has expanded into sports-related event contracts. Because it's regulated, each market has clearly defined, official resolution sources. The catalogue is smaller and more vetted than a decentralised platform's, which many traders see as a feature rather than a limitation.

1. Open an account and complete identity verification (KYC) — standard for a regulated US exchange. 2. Deposit USD via bank transfer or card. 3. Choose a market, then buy Yes or No contracts at the current price, using market or limit orders. 4. Manage the position: hold to settlement, or sell early to lock in a result before the event concludes. 5. Winning contracts settle to $1 automatically at resolution.

The simplest way to see it: Kalshi = regulated, fiat, US-legal, curated; Polymarket = decentralised, crypto (USDC), broader markets, restricted in some regions. Kalshi trades safety and legality for a narrower menu; Polymarket trades regulatory cover for range and openness. Caveats: availability, eligible markets and rules change over time and by jurisdiction, so check the current terms where you live. Trading event contracts carries risk of loss, and this guide is educational information — not financial or legal advice.