Polymarket explained: how to trade prediction markets

Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market: a platform where people trade on the outcome of real-world events — elections, economic data, crypto prices, sports and more. Instead of betting against a bookmaker, you buy and sell shares in outcomes with other users, peer to peer. It runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses the stablecoin USDC, so a balance holds its dollar value. Each market has outcomes priced between 0 and 100 cents, and that price is the market's estimate of how likely the outcome is.

Every outcome trades as a share priced in cents, and the price equals the implied probability. A share priced at 65¢ means the market thinks that outcome has roughly a 65% chance. Each winning share pays out $1 (100¢) when the market resolves; losing shares are worth nothing. So if you buy a 'Yes' share at 65¢ and it resolves yes, you receive $1 — a 35¢ profit per share. If it resolves no, you lose the 65¢. This is exactly the 'cents' format in our odds converter: 65¢ = 65% implied probability = decimal odds of about 1.54.

1. Set up a wallet and fund it with USDC on the Polygon network (Polymarket guides you through this on signup). 2. Pick a market and an outcome (Yes or No). 3. Buy shares at the current price. You can place a market order (instant, at the going price) or a limit order (your chosen price). 4. Exit any time: you don't have to wait for resolution. If your shares rise from 40¢ to 70¢, you can sell and lock in the gain — just like trading. 5. When the event ends, winning shares settle at $1 automatically.

When the real-world event concludes, the market needs to know the true outcome. Polymarket resolves markets using an oracle — a decentralised system (UMA) that reports the verified result on-chain, with a dispute window in case of disagreement. Each market states its resolution source and criteria up front (for example, the official body that declares the result). Always read those criteria before trading: ambiguous or poorly-worded markets can resolve in ways you didn't expect.

• Liquidity varies: popular markets are deep and easy to trade; niche ones can have wide spreads, so you pay more to enter and exit. • Resolution risk: a market can hinge on how its rules are interpreted. Read the resolution criteria. • Regional availability: access is restricted in some jurisdictions (notably for US persons historically). Rules and availability change — check what applies where you live. • It's still risk capital: prediction markets can lose money like any speculative activity. This is educational information, not financial or legal advice. Used carefully, Polymarket is a transparent way to price real-world uncertainty — and often offers tighter pricing than a traditional bookmaker because there's no house margin, just a market of buyers and sellers.